A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
